By Peter Waciuri,
20th January 2025,
Kiambu, Kenya.
Kiambu County’s gubernatorial race is beginning to crystallise, with a new Ipsos voter preference survey indicating that a majority of voters have already formed opinions ahead of the next general election.
The survey, conducted across the county’s urban and rural areas, places incumbent Governor Kimani Wamatangi in the lead with 40 per cent support. He is followed by Alice Ng’ang’a at 30 per cent, while Patrick Wainaina (Jungle) and James Nyoro trail with 15 per cent and 10 per cent respectively. Only five per cent of respondents indicated they were undecided.
According to Ipsos, the relatively small proportion of undecided voters suggests a consolidating electorate, with most residents already leaning toward established political figures. The findings point to a four-horse contest, even as formal campaigns are yet to fully intensify.
The survey assessed voter sentiment across all major sub-counties and selected wards in Kiambu County, ensuring balanced geographic representation and inclusion of both urban and rural populations. Only registered voters aged 18 years and above were interviewed.
Data collection was conducted using a mixed methodology combining face-to-face and telephone interviews, with respondents allowed to privately enter their responses on interviewers’ smartphones to enhance reliability. A stratified sampling approach was applied, with quotas for age, gender, and location to closely mirror the county’s demographic profile.
Following fieldwork, the data was statistically weighted to correct for any imbalances in representation, using available population and voter registration benchmarks. Ipsos notes that all results are based on the weighted dataset and reflect voter opinion at the time of the survey.
With a total sample size of 4,308 respondents, the survey carries an estimated margin of error of ±3–4 percentage points at a 95 per cent confidence level. As such, Ipsos cautions that the findings should be interpreted as a snapshot of current sentiment rather than a prediction of the final election outcome.
Beyond candidate preference, the survey also examined voter preparedness. While a majority of respondents reported efforts to confirm their registration status with the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), a significant minority had not, citing reasons such as lack of access to mobile phones or network connectivity. The findings highlight lingering administrative and logistical challenges that could influence voter participation.
Ipsos emphasised that turnout variations, campaign dynamics, alliances, and messaging could still reshape the race as the election draws nearer. The survey was conducted independently and is not affiliated with, commissioned by, or endorsed by the IEBC or any political party or candidate.
As Kiambu County moves closer to the next general election, the survey suggests a political contest that is already taking defined shape—one in which candidates will need to consolidate existing support while seeking to sway voters aligned with rival camps in an increasingly competitive environment.
